While GDP per capita has risen faster than median household income in most of these countries over the period these data cover, the size of that divergence varied very substantially, with the USA a clear outlier.
The paper distinguishes a number of factors contributing to such a divergence, and finds wide variation across countries in the impact of the various factors. Further, both the extent of that divergence and the role of the various contributory factors vary widely over time for most of the countries studied.
These findings have serious implications for the monitoring and assessment of changes in household incomes and living standards over time. Thewissen, S. Abstract: Income inequality has increased in a number of the rich democratic nations over the past generation. We examine whether this has reduced income growth for middle income households. Growth in median incomes is negatively associated with changes in the Gini but not with changes in top income shares. Economic growth is strongly associated with growth in median incomes, although it does not seem to fully transmit. Sterck, O. In Health Policy and Planning.
We wrote a summary of our findings for VoxEU here.
This paper questions this paradigm by analyzing the determinants of health outcomes using cross-sectional data from 99 countries in We use disability-adjusted life years Group I per capita as our main indicator for health outcomes. We consider four primary variables: GNI per capita, institutional capacity, individual poverty and the epidemiological surroundings.
Oxford Economics is a leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis, with the world's only fully integrated economic model and full-time economists. Reliable and consistent forecasts and analysis are essential to developing international business plans and projections. Economic and trade forecasts.
We take the contagious nature of communicable diseases into account, by estimating the extent to which the population health in neighboring countries the epidemiological surroundings affects health outcomes. We apply a spatial two-stage least-squares model to mitigate the risks of reverse causality, and use additional IV estimations as sensitivity tests. Overall we find that GNI is not a significant predictor of health outcomes once other factors are controlled for.
Max Roser — The short history of global living conditions and why it matters that we know it. Edited by J. Tyler Dickovick and Jonathan Eastwood. January Oxford University Press. Oxford University Science Blog on the paper: here. Abstract: The large span of long-run projected temperature changes in climate projections does not predominately originate from uncertainty across climate models; instead it is the wide range of different global socio-economic scenarios and the implied energy production that results in high uncertainty about climate change.
It is therefore important to assess the observational tracking of these scenarios.
For the first time observations over two decades are available against which the initial sets of socio-economic scenarios used in IPCC reports can be assessed. Here we compare these socio-economic scenarios created in both and against the recent observational record to investigate the coupling of economic growth and fossil-fuel CO2 emissions.
We find that the growth rate in fossil fuel CO2 emission intensity — fossil fuel CO2 emissions per GDP — over the s exceeds the projections of all main emission scenarios. Proposing a method to disaggregate differences in global growth rates to country-by-country contributions, we find that the relative discrepancy is driven by high growth rates in Asia and Eastern Europe, in particular in Russia and China. The growth of emission intensity over the s highlights the relevance of unforeseen local shifts in projections on a global scale.
Based on those assumptions, U. Under yet one more scenario they predict further stimulus from China, de-escalation in trade tensions supportive policy from central banks and much improved investor sentiment across the globe. All that good news could mean a boost in the high single digit percentage ballpark by the first quarter of Europe stocks SXXP, Our chart of the day looks at a big mover for Wednesday — crude US:CLN19 , which is sliding after an industry report showed climbing U.
Consumer prices rose by 0.
Coming up, federal budget figures. In the biggest protests since , thousands of demonstrators in Hong Kong surrounded government headquarters on Wednesday, forcing the delay of a legislative session to vote on a bill that would allow criminal suspects in Hong Kong to be sent for trial in mainland China. Police opened up with tear gas and water cannons and those protesters are still on the streets.
Medidata MDSO, Nintendo , A deadly Ebola outbreak in Congo has reached Uganda, leaving one child dead. A Colorado Christian cakeshop is in trouble again.
Meatless fast-food burgers — not much healthier, and a lot more expensive. Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The emailed version will be sent out at about a. Services growth is also overstated, but to a lesser extent than manufacturing. If so, why? What is really going wrong with the calculation? The new GDP data has several puzzling characteristics.
At an aggregate level, the series shows a moderation in nominal GDP growth over the last five years. However, this is not matched by the real GDP data, which show a clear pick-up. Part of the problem is down to the construction of the deflators. India's deflators are more aligned to wholesale prices WPI and, thus, tend to exaggerate decline in prices when the WPI is contracting. This is especially true for services, where prices are elevated and sticky according to the CPI. In fact, services are not even covered by the WPI. Yet, the services deflator indicates a high correlation with the latter.
Moreover, there is a clear dissonance between the national accounts and on-the-ground evidence, particularly for the manufacturing sector.
Firstly, IIP is a volume index.