This winter is going to be brutal.
Freezing and snowy in the Northeast and Midwest, and warmer than average in the Pacific Northwest, where you'd actually want icy temps for skiing. We should all cancel our plans and head to the South, where they're getting a mild winter-right? Well, yes, if you believe the Old Farmer's Almanac , which released those predictions last month.
But some meteorologists insist methods for forecasting the weather have changed since George Washington was in office and that the almanac's weather predictions are as old-fashioned as his powdered 'do. We took a look back at the records, talked to meteorology experts and even the Old Farmer's Almanac 's editor to figure out how, exactly, they're coming up with these predictions - and can we actually trust them?
Farmers' almanacs have been around for centuries, offering both weather forecasts and entertainment long before the internet, TV, and magazines were even around. The Old Farmer's Almanac and its rival, the Farmers' Almanac , which was introduced in , still capture the public's attention each year when they release their much-anticipated long-term weather forecasts. They predict everything from temperatures to snowfall months in advance.
Canada Winter Weather Prediction For our friends in the north, brace yourselves for snowier, colder-than-usual winter weather. However, some wet pockets still remain, including northern California and southern Oregon, the western Lower Lakes region, northern New England, and Florida. Retallack, Canada. The Rockies Winter temperatures will be above normal, with precipitation a bit below normal. EnergyWatch Inc. A dog named Ajax prances around the snow-packed, deserted streets of downtown Paducah, Kentucky, on February
Both maintain a level of secrecy around their approaches, which originated with their founders hundreds of years ago. Here's what the Old Farmer's Almanac publishes in each issue to explain their methods:. We derive our weather forecasts from a secret formula that was devised by the founder of this Almanac, Robert B. Thomas, in Thomas believed that weather on Earth was influenced by sunspots, which are magnetic storms on the surface of the Sun.
The idea that variations in sunspots, which are dark regions on the sun's surface caused by cooler temperatures, can predict weather on Earth is a controversial one. But solar science is one of the main schools of thought that sets apart them apart from your local weatherman's forecast. As Old Farmer's Almanac editor Janice Stillman admits: "Some people don't believe that the minute amount of [energy] the sun bears could have any influence on the atmosphere and therefore the climate and the weather, but we are among those that do.
Today, the Old Farmer's Almanac explains in each issue they use - in addition to solar science and the study of sunspots - climatology, the study of weather patterns, and meteorology, the study of the atmosphere. The exact formula, though, is famously covert - locked away for decades in an actual little black box. But Stillman says, rest assured, their meteorological technology and methods are absolutely up to date.
But the principals upon which the forecasts are made are essentially the same," Stillman says. In other words, their equipment is up to date, but their methods are a mix of old sun spots and new meteorology.
But some meteorologists say the out-of-this-world sunspot piece of the mysterious puzzle is problematic. Marshall Shepherd, the former American Meteorology Society president and University of Georgia professor of atmospheric sciences.
If one day is sunny and cool, does that count? Does every day have to be sunny and cool?
If you held them to every single word for the entire area and every word for the entire period, then I say they might not even be right one third of the time. In fact, they might be right 10 percent of the time," Penn State meteorologist Paul Knight said in Each year, the Old Farmer's Almanac publishes an analysis of their forecast from the previous year, and they give themselves a percentage score. For example, last year, they say they were Your annual reminder that using the Farmers Almanac for a seasonal meteorological is about as good as going to a psychic.
The coldest temperatures will be in early and late December and mid- to late January. The coldest periods will be in early and mid- to late December and mid- to late January. Snowfall will be above normal in the north and below normal elsewhere, with the snowiest periods in late November, early and mid-December, and mid-January. Temperatures will be below normal in the north and above normal in the south, with the coldest periods in early and mid- to late December and mid- to late January. Snowfall will be above normal in the north and below normal in the south, with the snowiest periods in early December and mid-January.
Gives His Own Prediction.
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